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notes / 2026

Financial modeling and business modeling are two different things

mar 26 2026

Something a sharper operator than me pointed out: financial modeling and business modeling get treated as the same thing in leadership conversations, and they’re not. The tooling everyone’s chasing is great at the financial side, the cells, the forecast, the scenarios. But that’s not where most of the actual decisions live.

The questions I care about don’t map cleanly to a spreadsheet. What’s the potential return on building this feature? On hiring this person? On running this pricing experiment? Those need high-level business thinking and a broad set of assumptions, not a tidy formula. I think there’s a real gap for lightweight, intelligent business-modeling that’s built around those questions instead of the financial math everyone already does.

When you make a big call, are you modeling the money, or the assumptions underneath it?

working notes, loosely kept email · victoria, bc